Aryna Sabalenka 61/100 vs Barbora Krejcikova 5/4
This could prove to be a riveting clash between two massively in-form players (who are now both Grand Slam champions). Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka started this year like a house on fire, winning the Adelaide 1 event before claiming her maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne.
It was a watershed moment for a player who many thought lacked the personality to seal a Grand Slam title (me included). But her 13-match winning streak was brought to an abrupt end by none other than Barbora Krejcikova (more on that in a minute).
Still, she brought an imposing 13-1 record into this year’s event. And things couldn’t have gone smoother for Sabalenka thus far. She annihilated Rodina in a performance that typified her new ruthlessness. She then received a bye into this round after Tsurenko withdrew due to personal reasons.
But it says something that Sabalenka has never gone beyond this stage in this tournament. She doesn’t get full value for her power on these sticky surfaces. She has improved vastly on clay of late and it will be interesting to see if she can correct that poor Indian Wells record.
I have always felt that Krejcikova’s singles form has been diminished somewhat by her superlative doubles achievements. Last year saw her struggle at times to balance those two threads.
But the 2021 French Open champion did win two late-season titles that were a portent of things to come. She started this year in indifferent singles form. That all changed with her magnificent victory in Dubai.
She won her maiden WTA 1000 title, beating the top three players in the world in the process. This included a remarkable come-from-behind victory against Aryna Sabalenka. She actually conceded a dreaded bagel set in the opener. But she soon got to terms with Sabalenka and produced a roaring comeback.
She carried that Dubai form into her first match this week, crushing Dayana Yastremska in straight-sets. But she was sloppy against Wang last time put, serving ten double-faults in a three-set win. The Czech is now the one protecting an eight-match winning streak. Could Sabalenka return the favour and break it?
Verdict: Krejcikova to win in three at 42/10
Sabalenka actually led their head-to-head rivalry 2-0 prior to their meeting in Dubai. But everything seems to point towards the Czech here. The French Open champion loves slower surfaces that encourage patient point construction. I expect her to grind Sabalenka down over three sets.
