BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his latest Derby Dozen Presented by Spendthrift, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 6.
There’s less than two weeks remaining until Derby 149, and with all races in the prep series finished, contenders continue to arrive in Churchill Downs and conduct workouts as they settle in and get acclimated to the surroundings in advance of the sport’s biggest event.
Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
1. Forte
Last year’s juvenile champion, 2-for-2 as a 3-year-old, figures to be a clear public choice at the betting windows in the Kentucky Derby, with horseplayers backing him and also with a massive wager expected from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale. The latter, known for his sizable sports and horse racing wagers, could bet $1 million or more on Forte to hedge on his Gallery Furniture promotion, in which folks get free furniture if the Derby favorite wins. Forte finished well in his first workout April 21 over the Churchill Downs surface, an in-company five-furlong move in 1:02 with a lively gallop out.
2. Tapit Trice
He was also sharp in his workout this past Friday at Churchill Downs, covering four furlongs in company in :48.60 while in need of no encouragement from his rider. The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner appears to be a progressive type and should continue to improve throughout 2023. His lengthy stride gives the appearance that he should relish the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Derby, but that optimism is tempered by the fact that he tends to break slowly. Horses away poorly in a 20-horse field like the Derby need to have favorable racing luck to successfully catch up.
Trainer Brad Cox seems excited about his chances in the Derby, and beyond that, in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets, the 1 ½-mile race known as the “Test of the Champion.” A horse Cox described as “all legs” as a 2-year-old has grown into his frame at age 3, and like Tapit Trice looks like a colt with the potential for continued development. Flavien Prat sticks with this colt after also riding Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns to victory this spring. Prat is a Derby winner, having won on Country House upon the stewards disqualifying Maximum Security in 2019 for interference.
For a horse coming off three consecutive graded stakes wins, there is not the pre-Derby buzz about him as one would expect. Perhaps that is due to him still training off site through this week at Santa Anita Park, his nose margin of victory in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, or his pedigree, being by Practical Joke, who ran most effectively at middle distances around one turn. The strengths this colt brings to the Derby are obvious: He can put himself into the race with a first-turn and backstretch advance, and having slipped up the fence in all three of his recent wins, he does not appear to be easily intimidated – a beneficial characteristic in a 20-horse Derby scramble.
5. Two Phil’s
Though he has never scored above the Grade 3 level, with his two stakes wins coming in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on synthetic at Turfway Park and the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs over a sloppy track, he appears classy. This winter at Fair Grounds, he was in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes winner Confidence Game when second in the Lecomte Stakes and just 2 ¾ lengths behind eventual Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire when third in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford. He beat a legitimate rival in the Jeff Ruby in whipping two-time graded stakes-winning turf horse Major Dude by 5 ¼ lengths.
6. Verifying
The top-ranked Derby Dozen horse of those yet to win a stakes race, Verifying impressed trainer Brad Cox with his effort in the Blue Grass when second, beaten a neck by Tapit Trice. “I expected him to win the Blue Grass,” the trainer said at Churchill Downs this past week. “I thought he ran a winning race (in defeat). He got beat by a very good horse.” Pedigree enthusiasts are understandably drawn to this colt, who is by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify and out of a dam who produced 2019 champion older dirt female Midnight Bisou.
The recent addition of Jace’s Road to the Derby lineup with the defection of Blazing Sevens adds some speed to what had appeared to be a relatively paceless Derby. This Japanese colt might still be the quickest early, having won the UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal on the lead. But it is no easy thing for a 3-year-old to ship from Dubai to the United States and experience success. No UAE Derby participants have hit the board in the Derby in 18 attempts. Still, he has already proven he can ship a long distance and run effectively. Japanese horsemen are also adept at winning on the international stage.
8. Kingsbarns
A hustling ride put him on the lead in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, ahead of Jace’s Road, and in command through soft fractions, he rolled to a comfortable victory over Disarm, subsequently third in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Horses exiting stakes from Fair Grounds this winter have done well elsewhere, with Confidence Game, Angel of Empire, and Two Phil’s capturing graded stakes in follow-up starts. This colt, who also won his two earlier starts in Florida, has shown the versatility to also rate just off fast fractions when needed.
After a mile workout in 1:38.20 April 14, he is set to receive a bit more recovery time for his next breeze, expected to come about a week before the May 6 Derby. The stiff mile drill was designed to leave him fit for the Derby, which will mark his first start in 70 days since his victory in the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. No horse has won a horse won a modern Kentucky Derby contested in the spring after more than 42 days off, though Authentic won the COVID-19 postponed Derby in September 2020 after 49 days away. Regret and Sir Barton took the Derby long, long ago after more than eight months off in 1915 and 1919, respectively.
10. Mage
Javier Castellano, who had been reportedly booked to ride longshot Raise Cain, will now be aboard this colt, who ranks as a Kentucky Derby contender. The Hall of Fame rider is winless in 15 Derby rides, with his best finish being a third from Audible in 2018. He lands a prime mount on this lightly raced colt, who ran a wide, slow-starting second behind Forte in the Florida Derby. If this colt can avoid another troubled break in the Derby – he also was away slowly when fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes – he may be able to close the necessary gap on Forte and the other top prospects.
11. Hit Show
Gary and Mary West, whose Maximum Security was disqualified from first and placed 17th for interference in the 2020 Kentucky Derby, are back in the race for the first time since with another homebred. They also campaigned this colt’s dam, Actress, winner of the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and Comely Stakes in 2017. A blowout winner of the Withers Stakes in February, Hit Show was subsequently second in the April 8 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct in his only other start this year. Last fall in his sole start at Churchill Downs, he ran fourth behind Confidence Game and eventual Holy Bull Stakes winner Rocket Can in an allowance optional claimer.
12. Skinner
He moved one spot closer to entry this weekend when Blazing Sevens was removed from Derby consideration, but as of April 25, he still needs one defection to gain a starting berth due to the Derby being capped at 20 horses. Trainer John Shirreffs told Santa Anita Park publicity the colt may not ship to Kentucky if chances of making the race remain up in the air. On the basis of speed and performance figures, this colt is fast enough to contend. He was a wide third in both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, both of which were run in quick time.
