Jelena Ostapenko 73/100 | Emma Radacanu 21/20
This is a match that has the power to ignite the early stages of this tournament. The ever-mercurial Jelena Ostapenko is always a hard one to fathom.
She can go from five straight losses to a tournament final in a heartbeat. The 2017 French Open champion has actually managed to find some consistency over the last few years, reaching five WTA finals since June 2021.
Her last tournament victory came at last year’s WTA 500 event in Dubai. Curiously, the Latvian has actually struggled on clay since wining the French Open title in 2017 (she hasn’t reached a clay-court final since). It makes sense.
Sure, she has the power to penetrate through the court. But clay also demands more discipline and the ability to stay in rallies. She comes into this event with a decent 12-8 record for the year. That record is inflated by a brilliant quarterfinal showing at the Aussie Open.
Can she rein in her worse impulses and play more constructive tennis this week?
It’s been a real roller-coaster ride for Emma Radacanu since her outrageous triumph at the 2021 US Open. I take that back: roller-coasters go up and down.
It has been pretty much a downward trajectory for the Brit since that Flushing Meadows success. She has struggled with the sudden fame and scrutiny and hasn’t reached a final since New York. She has also struggled with a variety of injury issues.
She suffered an ankle injury earlier this year and has been beset by ongoing wrist issues over the past few months. But there have been signs of real encouragement for the Brit of late. She reached the final 16 at Indian Wells before suffering a signature Swiatek pasting.
She then pushed fellow US Open champ Bianca Andreescu to three sets in Miami. She is certainly approaching a more consistent level. Currently sitting at 5-4 for the year, could Radancanu explode on this year’s clay-court circuit?
Verdict: Ostapenko to win in three – 7/2
This will be the first clay-court match of the year for both players. Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 1-0, with the Brit withdrawing in their Korea Open semi-final last year. I think this is a real toss-up. Ostapenko has more tennis under her belt and there are lingering concerns over Radacanu’s wrist.
This is the reason I’m opting for an Ostapenko three-set win. She may also benefit from the fact that this is an indoor clay-court event. She can fit into a steadier rhythm without interference from the elements (perhaps helping to keep those unforced errors down).
