Last year in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, Summer Is Tomorrow sped away from the 20-horse starting gate with an opening quarter-mile in :21.78, the fastest in race history, leading to a pace meltdown that benefited closers.
Six horses in the rear half of the pack early — which included quick follow-up quarter-mile splits of :45.36 and 1:10.34 — would rally to finish among the top-seven finishers, topped by 80-1 upset winner Rich Strike. Eighteenth down the backstretch, he successfully closed from 17 lengths back.
Demanding splits in the May 6 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs appear unlikely based on how the anticipated field looks three weeks out from the race. The projected lineup of 20 includes two horses who raced on their lead in their last starts: UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal winner Derma Sotogake and Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns.
Three others — Reincarnate, Jace’s Road, and Verifying — tracked in second place early in their final preps and have pace figures that suggest they could be forwarded placed. Wild On Ice, who rated in third behind hot fractions in winning the Sunland Park Derby, also possesses pace figures that put him in the early mix.
But many of the Derby favorites, including Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, race from behind.
The limited number of front-runners in this year’s Derby would suggest that slow to moderate fractions could unfold, potentially elevating the performances of those that race on or near the pace.
Two years ago, Medina Spirit led from start to finish in the Derby after setting moderate quarter-mile splits of :23.09, :46.70, and 1:11.21 — though he would be disqualified by stewards later in the year for a medication violation in the Derby, a ruling under appeal. A stalking Mandaloun, who crossed the finish line second, would rise to first on disqualification.
Few anticipated Medina Spirit being quicker than rival Rock Your World early in the 2021 Derby, not after the latter led him on a chase in the Santa Anita Derby a month earlier. But Rock Your World blew the Derby start and after running 10th early, he checked in 17th.
Returning to this year’s Derby, Derma Sotogake would seem a leading candidate to take charge early in the run for the roses. Hustled to the lead in the UAE Derby from his inside post by jockey Christophe Lemaire, the Japanese colt drew away by 5 1/2 lengths, a performance rated as the best by a 3-year-old this year in the most recent Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings.
A start before the UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake was away tardily in the Saudi Derby and ran third after playing catchup.
Should Derma Sotogake not break well in the Kentucky Derby, Kingsbarns might capitalize, as he did in a slow-paced Louisiana Derby. After racing in third and fourth early in his initial two races, which also resulted in victories, he was sent hard from the gate in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby and, after easy fractions of :24.71, :49.60, and 1:14.69, spurted clear to win by 3 1/2 lengths.
His Louisiana Derby splits were about a second apiece off the slowest Kentucky Derby fractions of the last 30 years (from different years): :23.57, :48.63, and 1:13.40.
Post positions also figure to affect Derby positioning with inside-drawn speed horses more likely to be sent by their riders to avoid getting shuffled back in the usual first-turn scramble for position.
