Bet the Wood Memorial Using History as the Guide

Generally speaking, the $750,000, Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct is a predictable race on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. Case in point, 11 of the last 12 winners have started at single-digit odds, including nine who offered odds less than 9-2.          

One reason why the Wood Memorial is so predictable is because it tends to be won by similar horses year after year. In other words, it’s a “trendy” race in which reviewing recent history points you toward the most likely win candidates in any given year.

The 2023 Wood Memorial will be held Saturday, so with that in mind, let’s dig into the data and come up with the profile of a typical Wood Memorial winner:

Late runners have a surprising advantage

Many North American dirt races favor horses with early speed. Not so the Wood Memorial. While a few pace-pressing and pace-tracking types have prevailed, there hasn’t been a gate-to-wire winner since Bellamy Road in 2005. Furthermore, the last four winners all rallied from five or more lengths off the pace after the opening half-mile.

As a rule, viewing deep closers with skepticism is a sound approach on dirt. But in the Wood Memorial, that guideline must be disregarded.

Don’t bet on untested horses

Maiden and allowance winners are effective in some Kentucky Derby prep races, but it’s tried-and-true graded stakes veterans who win the Wood Memorial. Seven of the last 12 Wood Memorial winners had previously won a graded stakes race, while four others had placed at the graded-stakes level. The only Wood Memorial winner during this timeframe without graded stakes experience was Bourbonic, who posted a 72.25-1 upset in 2021.

Favor trainer Todd Pletcher

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been almost unstoppable in the Wood Memorial. He’s conditioned seven of the last 12 winners: Eskendereya, Gemologist, Verrazano, Outwork, Vino Rosso, Bourbonic, and Mo Donegal. Many have been short prices, but the above-mentioned Bourbonic was a giant longshot, so it pays to respect any horse Pletcher enters in the Wood Memorial.

Florida shippers have a big advantage

When top trainers ship their Kentucky Derby contenders north from Florida to contest the Wood Memorial, the local runners struggle to contend for victory. Ten of the last 12 editions of the Wood Memorial have been won by horses who prepped at Gulfstream Park or Tampa Bay Downs, which is even more remarkable when you consider only 30 such shippers have contested the Wood Memorial over the last 12 years.

Also worth watching are the infrequent shippers coming off a race at Santa Anita Park in California. There have only been five over the last dozen years, most of them longshots, but two have finished in the top three, most notably the 81.50-1 runner-up Trojan Nation in 2016.

Bet sons of Grade 1-winning dirt routers

Horses sired by stallions who won at the Grade 1 level racing 1 1/16 miles or farther have dominated the Wood Memorial, winning 10 out of the last 12 editions. The only stallions to defy this trend were the Grade 1-winning sprinters Hard Spun (sire of Wicked Strong) and More Than Ready (sire of Verrazano), but it should be noted both recorded top-four finishes in the Kentucky Derby.

Conclusions

Among the probable starters for the 2023 Wood Memorial, there aren’t any horses who perfectly match the historical profile of a Wood Memorial winner. But two colts come very close: Classic Catch and Crupi, Todd Pletcher traineers who ran 1-2 in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last November. They’re returning to that configuration for the Wood Memorial and loom as formidable contenders.

Both Classic Catch and Crupi are late runners who figured to benefit from the Wood Memorial’s bias against pacesetters. Classic Catch is a son of 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and champion 2-year-old male Classic Empire, and Crupi is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (already the sire of two Wood Memorial winners), so they have nothing to worry about from a pedigree perspective. Both Classic Empire and Curlin won multiple Grade 1 races running 1 1/16 miles or farther.

Classic Catch and Crupi each have one pro and one con the other lacks. Classic Catch is shipping in from Gulfstream Park, whereas Crupi has never raced in Florida. But Crupi exits a seventh-place finish in a deep renewal of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, so he has graded stakes experience under his belt. Classic Catch, on the other hand, exits an allowance-optional claiming win racing 1 1/8 miles and has yet to contest a graded stakes.

Of the pair, Classic Catch might have the better win chance since he’s 2-for-2 racing 1 1/8 miles and has already defeated Crupi. But the Risen Star has churned out Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire and Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Two Phil’s in recent weeks, so Crupi comes out of a strong race and can’t be dismissed from consideration, though we would have preferred to seem him finish in the Risen Star top three.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!