BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his latest Derby Dozen Presented by Spendthrift, with a look at his leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 6.
Last week, two prep races offering 200 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers were held: the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. This Saturday, the final three 200-point preps are scheduled: the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct, and the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.
Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
1. Forte
Outquickened on the second turn in the April 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa and still fifth at the head of the stretch, last year’s Eclipse Award-winning juvenile looked like he might lose for the first time since finishing fourth in the Sanford Stakes in July. But he reached down and found the necessary reserves to run down eventual runner-up Mage, who had blown past him with a sweeping wide move on the second turn. All credit to the champ for getting things done when his best was not coming easily. This was an effort that seemed a few lengths off his Fountain of Youth Stakes and FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA-winning performances, and yet still good enough to win a Grade 1 by a length.
2. Tapit Trice
On the same day that stablemate Forte delivered in the Florida Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher put this talented 3-year-old through his final workout leading up to the April 8 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, a half-mile breeze at Palm Beach Downs in :49.57, tied for the second-fastest time at the distance that morning over the tiring surface there. Pletcher is hopeful that in the Blue Grass at Keeneland this colt will break sharper and show more early engagement after flying home late to win the March 11 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher goes for his fourth Blue Grass, having last won it in 2015 with Carpe Diem.
His April 2 workout for Saturday’s Runhappy Santa Anita Derby came amid a cluster of activity at Santa Anita Park, with this 3-year-old surrounded by four or five horses at one stage. He stalked inside, the kind of tactics the colt used successfully to win the 2022 Los Alamitos Futurity and then the San Felipe Stakes in his most recent start. Though he finished behind a couple of other rivals at the wire, completing five furlongs in 1:01.20, his exercise rider had him under a degree of restraint after appearing to peek down at his watch down the stretch. The 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby is shaping up to have a strong field, with Geaux Rocket Ride and National Treasure being two expected challengers.
He was a bit keen when rated off a workmate early in a five-furlong breeze in :59.20 Sunday at Santa Anita before powering away from the other horse and galloping out with energy. This competitive colt gives the impression that he prefers to lead early, though as he showed when second in the San Felipe, he can also perform at a high level from just off the pace. He has move-forward potential in the Santa Anita Derby if the race draws less speed than the San Felipe, in which he was the runner-up in just his second start.
Perhaps due to his beginnings last year at Horseshoe Indianapolis or the rotating jockeys on his back over his career, he tends to fly under the betting public’s radar to a degree for a Brad Cox trainee. He paid $11.40 to win the Arkansas Derby despite having won the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford a start earlier. He stepped up his game Saturday, running a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure as he covered 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.68, the fastest time in the race since 2020.
6. Two Phil’s
His time in winning the March 25 Jeff Ruby Steaks was 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.03 – not quite as quick as last year’s 1:48.60 delivered by Tiz the Bomb but more than a second faster than the 1:50.22 posted by Like the King in 2021. Those three renewals have all come over the Tapeta surface that replaced Turfway Park’s aging Polytrack. His sire, Hard Spun, won the Jeff Ruby on synthetic in 2007 when it was called the Lane’s End Stakes, and would go on to run second in the Derby, third in the Preakness Stakes, and fourth in the Belmont Stakes. This colt is also versatile, with the ability to handle dirt and synthetic tracks.
7. Kingsbarns
The Derby preps at Fair Grounds this winter were slow, including this colt’s win in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, but the form from there has held up well when its participants have ventured elsewhere. Lecomte Stakes third-place finisher Confidence Game won the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park; Lecomte runner-up and Risen Star Stakes show finisher Two Phil’s won the Jeff Ruby Steaks; and Risen Star winner Angel of Empire just won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Though this colt had everything his way on the lead when rolling to victory in the Louisiana Derby, his tactical speed creates good fortune.
His connections initially leaned toward sending him to the Blue Grass, but now it appears the Santa Anita Derby is more likely, Daily Racing Form reported. His breezes since missing the San Felipe with a sore foot have been excellent. After outworking Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Reincarnate March 26, he left another workmate behind when drilling six furlongs in 1:12.60 on Sunday. Out of action since third in the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes and without any Kentucky Derby qualifying points, he needs to win Saturday to be assured of making the race. Perhaps he could gain entry with 40 qualifying points for second if there are defections in the lead-up to the Derby.
9. Verifying
Though he did not race in New Orleans this winter, it was his principal base for training. He breezed there up until his last move, when he zipped five furlongs in :59.40 March 31 at Keeneland. He runs there next in the Blue Grass. After a runner-up finish in the Champagne Stakes in October, he raced at Keeneland later in the fall, finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after a troubled start. A horse who is at his best when he can secure a forward, pace-pressing journey, he did not get a desirable trip when caught in traffic in the Rebel en route to a fourth-place finish.
10. Confidence Game
Trainer Keith Desormeaux said he wants the Rebel winner to have plenty in the tank for the Triple Crown, and this colt’s participation in one of the final rounds of Derby preps is becoming increasingly unlikely. Desormeaux gave him a break from breezing after he won the Rebel Stakes, and as of April 4, his most recent breeze was March 25 at Fair Grounds. His Rebel was a fine effort, though others in the field had difficult trips. Those that were immediately behind him, runner-up Red Route One and third-place Reincarnate, ran sixth and third, respectively, in the Arkansas Derby.
11. Mage
His talent and inexperience were on display in the Florida Derby, when he soared past much of the field on the second turn with a head-turning rally. His zip slowed down in the stretch, perhaps from playing catchup after a tardy start and losing ground with a wide trip, and Forte ran him down late. This was the second straight race in which Mage’s break proved costly. The Florida Derby runner-up was similarly away slowly when fourth in the Fountain of Youth, also with a wide trip. He cannot afford to come away poorly in the Derby, when slow-starting horses are typically shuffled back in the 20-horse field.
12. Disarm
The Louisiana Derby runner-up squeaks past a few others for the final spot in the rankings, in part due to the aforementioned success of Fair Grounds horses running in graded stakes elsewhere in recent weeks. Though he did not win in New Orleans, he ran well in finishing 3 ½ lengths behind Kingsbarns after being bottled up in traffic until the stretch in a slow-paced race. He was the only horse to gain ground on the winner down the lane – if only a little – in a race that unfolded favorably for frontrunning Kingsbarns.
