The winter-spring meet at Fair Grounds wraps up this coming weekend with the track’s signature race, the $1 million, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby set for Saturday, March 25. The 1 3/16-mile race is a key prep event on the road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 6 at Churchill Downs.
The Louisiana Derby is the first domestic prep race offering top-tier qualifying points to the Kentucky Derby, distributing them on a 100-40-30-20-10 basis to the first five finishers. It’s the final of four qualifying points races for Derby 148 held during the Fair Grounds meet and is headlined by Instant Coffee, who won the second race in the series, the Lecomte Stakes, and currently ranks ninth on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Five horses have exited the Louisiana Derby and gone on to win the run for the roses at Churchill Downs: Black Gold in 1924; Grindstone in 1996; Funny Cide in 2003; Country House in 2019; and Mandaloun in 2021 (the last two via disqualification). Black Gold and Grindstone both won the Louisiana Derby prior to taking the first leg of the Triple Crown. Read about some of the best Louisiana Derby winners in this article.
The 110th Louisiana Derby will be televised on FanDuel TV and has a scheduled post time of 6:42 p.m. ET. Read on for information about all 12 starters.
1. Shopper’s Revenge (12-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Three Chimneys Farm
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $98,800
Earnings per start: $32,933
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 95
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Tapit – Stopchargingmaria, by Tale of the Cat
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: This son of leading sire Tapit overcame a slow start to rally through the stretch at Oaklawn Park and finish second in his prior race, a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming event on Feb. 18. He made up ground methodically and was in a good position to win coming out of the far turn, but he hung late and finished 2 ¼ lengths behind winner Airtime while well clear of the third-place horse. In his start before that, Shopper’s Revenge led from start to finish when winning a maiden race at the same track and distance on Jan. 14. Since he drew the inside post in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, expect regular rider Ricardo Santana Jr. to aim for a clean break and then urge his mount into a prominent early position. This colt might not set the pace but he should be very close to Jace’s Road once the field settles. All in all, he’s one of the more attractive longshots in the Louisiana Derby since his Equibase Speed Figures are competitive with the favorites and he boasts a stamina-fueled pedigree. His dam, Stopchargingmaria, won eight graded stakes, and her three Grade 1 wins – the Coaching Club American Oaks, Alabama Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup Distaff – all came at 1 1/8 miles or longer. Shopper’s Revenge has only made three career starts and should have plenty of development on the horizon. Another step forward could send him on his way to Louisville with an upset win or runner-up finish. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen has won the Louisiana Derby four times: Fifty Stars (2001), Pyro (2008), Gun Runner (2016), and Epicenter (2022). Three Chimneys Farm co-owned Gun Runner.
2. Instant Coffee (2-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Gold Square
Career record: 4 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $442,815
Earnings per start: $110,704
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 32
Pedigree: Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Instant Coffee is a deserving morning-line favorite for this year’s Louisiana Derby, as he’s run well in all four starts against some of the best horses in his age group and showed encouraging improvement from a speed-figure perspective in his first race as a 3-year-old. That came a little over two months ago when he rallied strongly in the stretch to win the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes by 2 ½ lengths on the main track at Fair Grounds. The victory was his second graded stakes score in a row and was fashioned in a similar off-the-pace style to his closeout juvenile win last November over Curly Jack in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Even in his only defeat, Instant Coffee showed grit, trying hard in the stretch to just miss getting third in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity back in October 2022, a race won by current Kentucky Derby favorite Forte. His credentials are indeed impressive, and Brad Cox has expressed high confidence that this colt from the first crop of Bolt d’Oro will take another step in development as he stretches out in distance Saturday. That being said, his 2-1 morning-line odds are unappealing considering that a) his late-running style may be compromised by a modest pace; and b) his Equibase Speed Figures are not much better than those of less-accomplished horses such as Shopper’s Revenge, Kingsbarns, and stablemate Tapit’s Conquest. While a vulnerable favorite, Instant Coffee is a must-use horse in exacta and trifecta bets, and finishing in the top three should give him enough points to reserve a starting-gate spot in the Kentucky Derby. Brad Cox, who received the Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer in both 2020 and 2021, won the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou. His colt Zozos finished second last year.
3. Curly Jack (12-1)
Jockey: Edgar Morales
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Owner: Michael McLoughlin
Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $421,580
Earnings per start: $60,226
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 91
Kentucky Derby points: 17
Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael, by Roman Ruler
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: After a busy and successful juvenile campaign over the second half of 2022, this colt from the first crop of champion Good Magic disappointed in his 3-year-old bow when he finished eighth of nine in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds. He was bumped early in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star but overcame that and raced in midpack for a while before launching a mild rally on the far turn, only to fall back in the homestretch. Last September, Curly Jack won the very first qualifying points race for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, taking the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs by a length, and he also closed out his 2-year-old season with a solid effort when runner-up to Instant Coffee in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. Even if his poor performance in the Risen Star can be chalked up to “needing a race” off of the layoff, Curly Jack has only surpassed the 90-mark in Equibase Speed Figures once in seven starts – and that came back in July, one start before the Iroquois. He’ll need to improve substantially Saturday to have any shot at an upset and may have plateaued, and his second start off the layoff should be revealing in that regard.
4. Sun Thunder (5-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owners: R.T. Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $181,250
Earnings per start: $45,313
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94
Kentucky Derby points: 24
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro
Color: Bay
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Sun Thunder figures to get some betting support in the Louisiana Derby based on his incremental improvement over four career starts and a new career-best effort in his last race. The Into Mischief colt took a brief lead in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds but was overtaken by Angel of Empire in the final sixteenth of a mile and lost by a length. He outran his 16.60-1 post-time odds, though, and earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 94. In his two prior two-turn races, Sun Thunder dominated a one-mile maiden special weight race on New Year’s Eve at Oaklawn Park by 6 ½ lengths and then finished a well-beaten fourth in his stakes debut, the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes held on a sloppy track at Oaklawn on Jan. 28. A similar effort to the Risen Star should put him in the mix for a top-three finish come Saturday evening, and trainer Ken McPeek has assigned his first-call rider on Kentucky Derby prospects, Brian Hernandez Jr., to Sun Thunder instead of stablemate Denington. There’s not a lot of speed lined up for this year’s Louisiana Derby, however, and that could be a challenge to Sun Thunder’s preferred late-running style. McPeek won this race way back in 2002 with Repent, and Hernandez was aboard Girvin for that colt’s impressive Louisiana Derby win in 2017.
5. Disarm (10-1)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $90,350
Earnings per start: $30,117
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 85
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Lightly raced Disarm brings top-rank connections and an intriguing pedigree to Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, and he’ll be facing a big class test in his stakes debut. He was a “buzz” horse at the Saratoga meet last summer, where he won his second career start by 6 ¼ lengths in a seven-furlong race on Aug. 6, but he then took a break of more than six months before returning for his 3-year-old bow Feb. 19 at Oaklawn Park. Sent off as the 11-10 favorite in a two-turn, one-mile allowance-optional claiming race, he broke slowly and never threatened runaway winner Two Eagles River, finishing second by four lengths. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen signals confidence in this colt by entering him in the Louisiana Derby in his second start off of the layoff, and he’s brought leading jockey Joel Rosario in from Florida to ride. Rosario was aboard Winchell Thoroughbreds-owned, Asmussen-trained Epicenter for that eventual champion’s win in last year’s Louisiana Derby, and he should settle this colt in a midpack stalking position through the backstretch before angling him out on the far turn for a closing rally. Disarm is a son of 2016 Louisiana Derby winner and leading sire Gun Runner and he is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to Tap Daddy, who won a stakes race on turf at 1 1/16 miles in the U.S. and then was shipped to Venezuela, where he stretched out to marathon distances, won six of 10 starts, and was voted that country’s champion stayer (long-distance horse). In order to call on that stout pedigree Saturday evening, Disarm will need to run a lot faster than he has in his three prior starts against much tougher competition, but a top-three finish is not impossible if he improves as expected. Winchell Thoroughbreds co-owned Gun Runner, who Asmussen trained to a Louisiana Derby win and Kentucky Derby third-place finish in 2016, and the Winchell family also owned Asmussen’s 2008 Louisiana Derby winner Pyro. Joel Rosario will be aiming for his third straight victory in in the Louisiana Derby; he was aboard Hot Rod Charlie in 2021 prior to winning with Epicenter.
6. Kingsbarns (6-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Career record: 2 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $57,300
Earnings per start: $28,650
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit, by Tapit
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher is not a regular presence during Fair Grounds’ meet, but he has certainly made his mark on the Louisiana Derby with four prior wins, and the reigning Eclipse Award winner looks to have another live contender this year in Kingsbarns. This son of champion and promising young sire Uncle Mo did not make his first career start until Jan. 14, but he captured attention right off the bat with a sharp 1 ¾-length win in a one-turn, one-mile maiden race at Gulfstream Park. Pletcher then sent the colt to Tampa Bay Downs for his two-turn debut in a one mile and 40-yard allowance-optional claiming race, and Kingsbarns met the challenge and then some, kicking clear to a dominant 7 ¾-length win resulting in a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second-best in this year’s Louisiana Derby field. The sky appears to be the limit for this colt, who is a relative of Grade 1-winning turf router Gozzip Girl. Buzz around Kingsbarns, plus the arrival of Flavien Prat from California to ride, could cause his odds to drop lower than the 6-1 listed on the morning line, making him an underlay. But Pletcher’s track record of “ship in and win” success coupled with Kingsbarns’ demonstrated talent – even facing a big class test – make him a formidable win candidate. Pletcher’s victories in this race came with Circular Quay (2007), Mission Impazible (2010), Revolutionary (2013), and Noble Indy (2018).
7. Cagliostro (12-1)
Jockey: Cristian Torres
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Owners: David Ingordo, Talla Racing, James Spry, West Point Thoroughbreds, and Nice Guys Stables
Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $53,788
Earnings per start: $17,929
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Upstart – A Rosefor Isabelle, by Hard Spun
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Cagliostro profiles as a longshot Louisiana Derby win contender who certainly has the potential to finish in the money should he continue the progression he’s displayed in his two starts earlier this year. He made his 3-year-old debut and second career start Jan. 21 going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds, and rallied strongly from a stalking spot to win by 3 ½ lengths. He then stepped up to face allowance company on Feb. 18 at the same track and distance and arguably ran better although he did not win, battling gamely with the more experienced Denington in the stretch before losing by a neck. This colt’s Equibase Speed Figure trajectory has ticked upward consistently, from 70 way back in his Saratoga debut, to 82 in January and then to 93 last month. A comparable jump Saturday could cause Cagliostro’s diverse ownership group – which includes some experienced and successful industry figures – to start discussing Derby plans. With zero qualifying points currently, he’ll need to finish second to secure a solid spot on the leaderboard. Cristian Torres, who is enjoying a breakout season as the leading jockey at Oaklawn Park, travels from Hot Springs to Fair Grounds to get aboard Cagliostro for the first time, and according to Equibase, the young rider will be making his first starts at this track on Saturday.
8. Single Ruler (15-1)
Jockey: David Cohen
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Owner: Rocker O Ranch
Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $55,974
Earnings per start: $9,329
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92
Kentucky Derby points: 5
Pedigree: Empire Maker – Smara, by Storm Cat
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Locally-based Single Ruler outran his 42.60-1 odds to finish fifth of 14 in last month’s Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford, and he’ll probably offer an attractive price to horseplayers again Saturday in this competitive field. In his race prior to the Risen Star, the son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker broke through with his first career win, taking a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 2 ¾ lengths. In the Risen Star, he tried to make up some ground late but did not threaten the four horses ahead of him, two of whom he’ll face again Saturday. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is known for patiently developing his horses and he’s already joined this year’s Kentucky Derby trail with recent Rebel Stakes winner Confidence Game, who broke through with a career-best effort in his seventh start. Single Ruler faces a stiffer challenge to do the same and grabbing a minor award and 10-20 more Kentucky Derby points appears to be his ceiling. Notably, Desormeaux has assigned David Cohen to ride Single Ruler for the first time Saturday, and that could signal a strategy to get this colt more involved early than in his prior starts, in which he’s generally raced near the back of the field before rallying late.
9. Tapit’s Conquest (10-1)
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: Robert LaPenta, e Five Racing Thoroughbreds, and Madaket Stables
Career record: 4 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $119,000
Earnings per start: $29,750
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 98
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Pedigree: Tapit – Conquest Lil Miss, by Horse Greeley
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker/closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Coming off of a solid effort in his stakes debut, Tapit’s Conquest is an intriguing longshot in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. He rallied into contention and loomed a threat at the top of the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford but flattened out in the final sixteenth to finish fourth, earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. One start earlier, he earned a 98 figure when he finished second by a head in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race at Fair Grounds on Jan. 21. Tapit’s Conquest also broke his maiden in a two-turn race, that coming last fall in a 1 1/16-mile test at Churchill Downs. The Louisiana Derby’s 1 3/16-mile distance should be no problem for this colt, and Manny Franco gets aboard him Saturday for the first time since riding him to a runner-up finish in his Saratoga debut last summer. He’s a second-tier win candidate who has a chance at pulling the upset with a career-best performance. Cox, as noted above, won the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou.
10. Denington (12-1)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owners: Fern Circle Stables and Magdalena Racing
Career record: 8 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $168,695
Earnings per start: $21,087
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94
Kentucky Derby points: 8
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Stronger Than Ever, by Congrats
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Denington leads all Louisiana Derby contenders by career starts with eight, and he enjoyed getting some class relief last month in his first start after three consecutive tries in Kentucky Derby preps. The son of 2016 Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner came from off the pace to outfight Cagliostro and win a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race by a neck Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds, and he earned a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort, which came against several highly regarded 3-year-olds including the runner-up. Prior to that, he had finished fourth in the Lecomte Stakes, third in the Smarty Jones Stakes, and fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes going back to last fall. He jumps back in again to face graded stakes company Saturday, and will get the services of East Coast jockey Junior Alvarado while Ken McPeek’s main rider, Brian Hernandez Jr., pilots Sun Thunder. Denington is a longshot to win but is worthy of consideration for exacta and trifecta tickets based off of his last effort. He’s obviously highly regarded by his connections (McPeek is co-owner) and may be rounding into better form. McPeek won this race 21 years ago with Repent.
11. Jace’s Road (12-1)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $138,050
Earnings per start: $27,610
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
Kentucky Derby points: 15
Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post, by Silver Deputy
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Jace’s Road is the probable Louisiana Derby pacesetter and, in a race largely devoid of speed, he could get very brave on the front end and be hard to catch. He’s made four consecutive starts in Kentucky Derby qualifying preps since last September, and his past performances show a stark contrast: two top-notch efforts balanced with two underwhelming races. He ran well to finish third behind Curly Jack in the 1 1/16-mile Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs last September but next out tossed jockey Florent Geroux before loading into the gate for the Oct. 30 Street Sense Stakes at the same distance and track and was a distant eighth of 10. Returning at Fair Grounds for the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner Stakes, Jace’s Road jumped to the early lead, controlled the pace, and was not challenged late as he coasted to a 5 ½-length win that netted a career-top 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Trying the same distance for the fourth time in a row, the Quality Road colt failed to fire in the Jan. 28 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park and finished 12 ¾ lengths behind Arabian Knight in fifth. The common denominator in his two decisive defeats was a sloppy track – and as of this writing, the forecast in New Orleans calls for mostly sunny skies on March 25. That favorable outlook coupled with the aforementioned lack of other front-running types make Jace’s Road a threat to win the Louisiana Derby, and his morning-line odds of 12-1 may adjust accordingly. Florent Geroux teamed up with Brad Cox to win this race in 2020 aboard Wells Bayou, who took the field gate to wire, and it’s a good bet that a similar strategy will be employed Saturday evening if jockey and horse can get away clean from this outside post position. Geroux also won the 2016 Louisiana Derby on Gun Runner and he finished second in last year’s race aboard Cox-trained Zozos.
12. Baseline Beater (20-1)
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Neil Pessin
Owner: Lothenbach Stables
Career record: 5 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $64,338
Earnings per start: $12,868
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Flatter – Seize the Ring, by Tiznow
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: This Flatter gelding will most likely vie with Single Ruler for carrying the longest post-time odds in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, and as a deep closer he’ll need several things to go his way to have any chance at securing an in-the-money finish. Baseline Beater has come back in his two starts at 3 to run considerably better than he did as a juvenile, finishing second to Single Ruler in his 2023 debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race Jan. 21 and then rallying from 10th of 11 early on to win a Feb. 18 maiden by 3 ¼ lengths at the same track and distance. While he has a solid stamina pedigree, his Equibase Speed Figures have topped out in the high 80s for both starts this year, placing him in the bottom rung of Louisiana Derby contenders. On the other hand, drawing the far outside post position should be no concern at all as jockey Corey Lanerie position him near the back of the field soon after the start and try to work out a good trip while praying for a swift pace to close into. Baseline Beater will be running late and could pick off a few tired horses to finish in the top half of the field – anything more than that would be a surprise.
