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HomeHorse Racing2023 Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet

2023 Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet



Thoroughbred racing takes the international spotlight May 6 at Churchill Downs, as more than 150,000 people are expected to attend the 149th Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve while millions more watch the race on a national television broadcast in the U.S. and through other outlets worldwide.

The $3 million, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, held at 1 ¼ miles on dirt, is the first leg of the Triple Crown for U.S. horse racing, followed by the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 20 and the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets at Belmont Park on June 10. The three races are restricted to 3-year-old Thoroughbreds, making winning the series a “once in a lifetime” goal for each horse and its owners.

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The Triple Crown is the marquee event of the sport in America, and since it’s the opener of the series, the Kentucky Derby is the most important, and prestigious, race.

Thirteen horses that have won the Kentucky Derby have gone on to win the Preakness and Belmont and sweep the Triple Crown, achieving the highest level of fame in horse racing: Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978), American Pharoah (2015), and Justify (2018).

Last year produced one of the most memorable Kentucky Derbies in living memory, as 80.80-1 longshot Rich Strike rallied through the stretch to defeat favorite Epicenter and post the second biggest upset in the race’s long history. This year’s competitive field is headlined by Forte, who enters the Derby having won six of his seven career races, including both of his starts earlier this year, and who received the Eclipse Award as the champion 2-year-old male of 2022.

The 2023 Kentucky Derby will be broadcast live on NBC as part of a 7 ½-hour program and will also be livestreamed on Peacock. Post time is set for approximately 6:57 p.m. ET.

America’s Best Racing has many resources to help fans new to the Kentucky Derby learn about the race’s rich history, what to bring to the event, and how to bet on the horses. Our Triple Crown page also has profiles of all of the contenders, and please also follow ABR on social media (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok) for updates on the race in the days ahead plus photos and videos from our team on-site at Churchill Downs. And be sure to tune into ABR’s social channels (Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube) Tuesday evening, May 2 at 8 p.m. ET for our livestream show “Kentucky Derby Preview LIVE! Presented by TwinSpires.com,” hosted by Dan Tordjman and Ren Carothers.

Whether you are interested in making a couple of bucks on the race or just want to know a little bit about this year’s runners, we’ve got you covered with our 2023 Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet. Check back after the Derby draw on May 1 for an updated Cheat Sheet with all contenders listed in post-position order and with morning-line odds added.


Forte

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable

Career record: 7 starts – 6 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $2,409,830

Earnings per start: $344,261

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 106

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: This colt racing for top-level connections enters the Kentucky Derby as the deserving favorite. He’s 6-for-7 in his career and 2-for-2 at age 3 this year, coming back in excellent form after winning the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male of 2022. Forte is the son of a relatively unproven sire in Violence, who had his own racing career cut short due to injury. That means several other contenders have more established stamina in their bloodlines, but Forte has shown no indication that he can’t handle the Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance. A couple of minor concerns: in terms of final race times and speed figures, Forte does not tower over the Kentucky Derby field, and in fact he has maintained – but not improved upon – his numbers from last season. Plus, he had to muster every bit of energy to rally late and defeat Mage by a length in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa on April 1, his final prep race for the Kentucky Derby. That being said, this striking dark bay or brown colt will be hard to beat if he gets a good pace to run into and a clean trip in the Derby. His stalking running style should serve him well, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. should have him positioned in midpack through the Churchill backstretch before angling him out and giving him his cue on the far turn. Derby History: Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has entered a record 62 horses in the Kentucky Derby and is on track to add three to that total this year. He’s won the race twice, with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017, and also finished second twice, third four times, and fourth twice. Irad Ortiz Jr. will be making his seventh start in the Derby; his best finish came aboard Improbable in 2019 when that colt was moved up from fifth to fourth after winner Maximum Security was disqualified. Co-owner St. Elias Stable was part-owner of 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming, and Mike Repole of Repole Stable has had seven previous Derby starters with his best finish coming when Mo Donegal ran fifth in 2022.


Practical Move

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Owners: Leslie Amestoy, Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., and Roger Beasley

Career record: 7 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $884,200

Earnings per start: $126,314

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 108

Kentucky Derby points: 160

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: California-based trainer Tim Yakteen made his first appearance in the Kentucky Derby last year, when he campaigned two horses originally trained by Bob Baffert, Taiba and Messier, in the 148th Derby while Baffert served a suspension enacted by Churchill Downs that runs through this summer. Yakteen is back again in the Kentucky Derby with a former Baffert colt in Reincarnate, but he’s also represented by one he has trained from the start in Practical Move. Forte aside, Practical Move has been the most consistent contender on the road to the Kentucky Derby. He enters the May 6 classic on a three-race winning streak, all of them in graded stakes races. His last race was the toughest, as Practical Move took a clear lead in the stretch of the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby April 8 but was then challenged by both Mandarin Hero and Skinner in the final strides, and he was all out to hang on and defeat the former by a nose. While Practical Move’s sire, Practical Joke, did his best running at a mile, this colt gets a stamina boost from his dam’s (mother’s) side, which has produced 2014 Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner and 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. He also has shown the ability to win while running inside of horses (and in fact may prefer it), which could be an advantage if he encounters traffic trouble in the crowded Kentucky Derby field. Overall, Practical Move projects as one of the top three or four Derby favorites: he has competitive speed figures and has not finished out of the top three in any of his seven career starts. Derby History: As mentioned, Yakteen is back for another Derby attempt with a pair of contenders. Jockey Ramon Vazquez will also make his second Kentucky Derby start this year, his first coming in 2015.


Angel of Empire

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Career record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $1,069,375

Earnings per start: $178,229

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 106

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony’s Angel, by To Honor and Serve

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: One of four Kentucky Derby contenders trained by Brad Cox, Angel of Empire should receive a lot of support from bettors based on his encouraging pattern of improvement. He started off his 3-year-old season with a solid runner-up effort in a Derby prep at Oaklawn Park, and then won two consecutive prep races with visually impressive off-the-pace rallies: the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford and the Arkansas Derby. In the April 1 Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire powered through the stretch to win by 4 ¼ lengths over a tough field and appeared to have plenty left in reserve at the end. Earlier this year, Cox speculated that this colt would relish racing 1 ¼ miles in the Kentucky Derby, and his pedigree is solid in terms of stamina. Like all closers in the crowded Kentucky Derby, Angel of Empire will need a solid pace to run into and some racing luck to help him navigate through the field, but if he gets a clear path in the stretch look for him to be making up ground fast under Flavien Prat and putting his trainer’s confidence to the test in a bid for a career-defining victory. Derby History: Flavien Prat and Brad Cox are united as Kentucky Derby winners with an asterisk, a designation both hope to escape this year. Prat got his Derby win in 2019 when first-place finisher Maximum Security was disqualified due to interference and his mount Country House was elevated from second to first. Cox did not even get to visit the winner’s circle with his 2021 Derby winner Mandaloun. That horse, runner-up to Medina Spirit in the actual race, was named the official winner in spring 2022 when Medina Spirit was disqualified by Kentucky racing stewards due to a drug positive. Cox has had four other prior Derby starters with one third-place finish, and Prat has also finished second aboard Hot Rod Charlie in 2021 and third twice in recent years, including last spring aboard Zandon. Iowa-based Albaugh Family Stables sends its fourth horse to the Kentucky Derby this year.


Tapit Trice

Jockey: Luis Saez

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable

Career record: 5 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $883,650

Earnings per start: $176,730

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103

Kentucky Derby points: 150

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Entering the Kentucky Derby on a four-race winning streak, Tapit Trice figures to be a popular betting choice based on several factors. He’ll get a lot of love from the general public based on his physical appearance – the colt is a gorgeous gray who sold for $1.3 million at auction as a yearling, and he’s angling to become the first gray or roan horse to win the Kentucky Derby since Giacomo in 2005 (Rocket Can, Hit Show, and Reincarnate are in this boat as well). He’s also got a stout pedigree for handling the Derby’s 1 ¼-miles and a sustained, powerful running style. In his last race, Tapit Trice fought off a stretch-long challenge to defeat Verifying by a neck in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 8. He’s a come-from-behind horse and may not recover if he has to pause and change course due to traffic during the Derby, but jockey Luis Saez kept him out of trouble in the Blue Grass while racing wide and Tapit Trice still showed enough ability and stamina to hold on and win. Forte will have the lowest post-time odds among the three Kentucky Derby horses trained by Todd Pletcher, but this colt may have the highest ceiling looking ahead to future races such as the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets. Derby History: Pletcher is set to add to his record 62 Kentucky Derby starters with three more in 2023 and has a solid shot to pick up his third win following Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). Jockey Luis Saez’s best official finish in the Derby is third in 2021; he was also aboard disqualified first-place finisher Maximum Security in 2019. Co-owner Gainesway Stable has finished in the Derby top three twice while owned by the late Graham Beck and more recently his son Antony. Gainesway co-owned third-place Derby finisher Timber Country in 1995 and also co-owned 2021 runner-up Hot Rod Charlie.


Two Phil’s

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Owners: Patricia’s Hope and Phillip Sagan

Career record: 8 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $683,450

Earnings per start: $85,431

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 97

Kentucky Derby points: 123

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri, by General Quarters

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Every year, several Kentucky Derby horses bring connections to the big stage for the first time along with some unique storylines. One of those horses this year is Two Phil’s, and this hard-trying runner is also a win candidate in the race. He has hit the board in four consecutive graded stakes races going back to last October, with two wins, one second, and one third. His last start was his career-best performance, as Two Phil’s shipped to Turfway Park and won the Jeff Ruby Steaks by a widening 5 ¼ lengths March 25 on that track’s synthetic Tapeta Footings surface. Overall, his speed figures are a notch below those of the top handful of Kentucky Derby contenders. On the other hand, he already owns a stakes win on Churchill’s dirt track, that coming last fall in the Street Sense Stakes. He’s paired up very well with jockey Jareth Loveberry, who’s been aboard Two Phil’s in every start since his debut. Look for Loveberry to keep his mount in touch with the field and racing no worse than seventh or eighth through the first three-quarters of a mile before urging him into contention and trying to make a bid for the lead as the field enters the homestretch. Derby History: This is the first Derby appearance for all of Two Phil’s connections. Jareth Loveberry and trainer Larry Rivelli were both among the statistical leaders in their professions at Arlington International Racecourse in suburban Chicago, which held its final meet in 2021.


Lord Miles

Jockey: Paco Lopez

Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.

Owner: Vegso Racing Stable

Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $451,100

Earnings per start: $90,220

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100

Kentucky Derby points: 105

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: After showing little in two prior Kentucky Derby prep races, Lord Miles lit up the toteboard with a 59.25-1 upset win in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino April 8, battling through the stretch to defeat Hit Show by a nose with Dreamlike another head back in third. He won’t go off at odds quite that high in the May 6 Derby, but this colt will still be a longshot. On the positive side, he has a good pedigree for handling 1 ¼ miles as a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. Lord Miles also improved his form considerably with a change of running styles in the Wood Memorial, as jockey Paco Lopez kept him positioned closer to the pace than in his prior races and also shifted him outside of horses rather than saving ground along the rail. Even with the much improved effort, Lord Miles will need to take another sizable leap to make some noise in the Kentucky Derby. He lost to Tapit Trice by 5 ¾ lengths and Rocket Can by 11 ¼ lengths in his two Derby preps this year before the Wood. Derby History: This will be Paco Lopez’s third Derby appearance and also the third for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who finished the recently completed Gulfstream Park championship meet atop the trainer standings in wins.


Derma Sotogake

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Career record: 8 starts – 4 wins – 0 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $1,162,164

Earnings per start: $145,271

Top Equibase Speed Figure: N/A

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie, by Neo Universe

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Pacesetter

Notable achievements and interesting facts: One of the most interesting debates for this year’s Kentucky Derby centers around the win chances of this Japan-bred and -based horse who comes into the race off of an impressive score in the UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal March 25. That race was held at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, and Derma Sotogake soundly defeated an international field that included three U.S.-based runners. He did so by moving to the lead immediately after breaking from the starting gate under jockey Christophe Lemaire and then controlling the pace throughout before opening up in the stretch to win with ease. His final time in the UAE Derby is competitive with the best times in major Kentucky Derby preps run in the U.S. this spring. Prior to the UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake won three out of seven starts in his native Japan, and showed versatility in doing so: he’s not a “need-the-lead” type, in other words. Still, this year’s Kentucky Derby field is comprised mainly of horses that prefer to stalk the pace or race from even farther back, so it may be in the best interest of Lemaire to urge Derma Sotogake in front once again after the starting gate opens and attempt to win the Kentucky Derby on the front end. Derma Sotogake’s connections have history working against them: no UAE Derby winner has hit the board in the Kentucky Derby to date, nor has any Japan-based horse. This colt, a son of excellent U.S. sprinter-miler Mind Your Biscuits, represents Japan’s best chance at achieving Derby glory yet. Derby History: While Derma Sotogake’s owner and trainer will both be making their first Kentucky Derby appearance, international jockey Lemaire returns for the second year in a row after piloting Japan’s Crown Pride to a 13th-place finish in 2022.


Kingsbarns

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Career record: 3 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $657,300

Earnings per start: $219,100

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit, by Tapit

Color: Bay

Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Kingsbarns is a bit of a wild card in this year’s Kentucky Derby: he’s supremely talented yet has only made three starts, all of them wins, and did not debut on the track until Jan. 14. Justify already broke “the curse of Apollo” in 2018 when he became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without making a start at age 2 since Apollo in 1882, but the odds are still stacked against this son of champion Uncle Mo facing off against stablemates Forte and Tapit Trice and several other more experienced runners. Kingsbarns made his stakes debut in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 25 and pulled off a gate-to-wire victory without being seriously challenged. He was able to set a moderate pace in the Louisiana Derby and therefore had plenty of energy remaining to finish up strongly under jockey Flavien Prat, who will ride Angel of Empire in the Kentucky Derby. In both of his starts prior to the Louisiana Derby, Kingsbarns raced just off of the early pace before taking over at the top of the stretch, and it will be interesting to see if his new rider and trainer Todd Pletcher decide to revert to that running style or attempt a Louisiana Derby repeat in a much tougher assignment. At any rate, look for this late bloomer to be among the front four or five contenders through the Churchill backstretch as he attempts to extend his unbeaten streak to four in the sport’s biggest race. Derby History: Pletcher is on track to have three more starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby, adding to his record total of 62. Two of those won the race: Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Spendthrift Farm, founded by the late B. Wayne Hughes, was a co-owner of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, who also won the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic and received the Eclipse Award as Horse of the Year.


Raise Cain

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Owners: Andrew and Rania Warren

Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $296,328

Earnings per start: $42,333

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93

Kentucky Derby points: 64

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: This longshot Kentucky Derby contender who, like Forte, is a son of Violence, earned the bulk of his qualifying points with an impressive 7 ½-length win in the Gotham Stakes March 4, and he followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 8. He’s been quite consistent throughout his career with only one start worse than fifth, and that came in his debut last September. Having said that, the Gotham was held at a one-mile distance and around one turn, and the tempo was affected when a contender tossed his jockey at the start and then raced near the lead all the way into the stretch, causing the other front-runners to go faster than they otherwise would have. Raise Cain swept past the leaders in the Gotham but did not make much of an impression at all in the Blue Grass, finishing 6 ¾ lengths behind Tapit Trice and Verifying. His speed figures are around 10-15 points lower than the top Kentucky Derby contenders, and as such he’ll need a career-best performance to hit the board in the 1 ¼-mile classic on May 6. Derby History: This is the first Kentucky Derby for owners Andrew and Rania Warren and trainer Ben Colebrook.


Rocket Can

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Trainer: Bill Mott

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations

Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $383,413

Earnings per start: $54,773

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension, by Tapit

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Bettors in search of a longshot alternative to Forte and the other favorites in Kentucky Derby 149 should spend some time examining Rocket Can’s résumé. The son of leading sire Into Mischief surfaced on the Triple Crown trail with a win in the Holy Bull Stakes Feb. 4 that earned a modest speed figure, and then boosted that number when running second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and then fourth behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby. In the Arkansas Derby, Rocket Can was checked at the top of the stretch when encountering some traffic, but he recovered and was running well at the finish to finish only about a half-length behind the runner-up. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has said in past couple of weeks that he believes Rocket Can still has untapped potential and that he will be racing with blinkers added in the Kentucky Derby to hopefully help improve his focus. The colt has a good pedigree for stamina as Into Mischief has sired a Kentucky Derby winner (Authentic, 2020) and his dam (mother) is multiple graded stakes winner Tough Tiz’s Sis, by two-time Horse of the Year Tiznow. Derby History: Bill Mott earned his first victory in the Kentucky Derby via disqualification in 2019 when his colt Country House, who finished second in the race to Maximum Security, was elevated to first minutes later by Churchill Downs stewards after they placed Maximum Security 17th due to interference. Mott-trained Tacitus was also moved up to third in 2019. Junior Alvarado, Mott’s first call jockey, will make his fourth Kentucky Derby start.


Hit Show

Jockey: Manny Franco

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owners: Gary and Mary West

Career record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $404,375

Earnings per start: $80,875

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Hit Show has remained under the radar somewhat this spring as the Kentucky Derby qualifying series commenced. His two Derby preps were both at Aqueduct in New York, and those races in recent years have been overshadowed by preps in other areas of the country (the last Derby winner to make his final prep in the Empire State was Funny Cide in 2003). Nevertheless, he’s worth long look as a Derby win contender who will probably carry odds of 15-1 or greater at post time. Hit Show won his 3-year-old debut in a Derby prep, taking the Feb. 11 Withers Stakes by 5 ½ lengths against a suspect field, and then nearly backed that up with a victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, where he raced between longshot Lord Miles and Florida shipper Dreamlike and was jostled during a furious stretch duel which Lord Miles won by a nose. Both the Withers and the Wood Memorial were held at 1 1/8 miles, an eighth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance, and this colt is bred to handle the assignment on May 6 as a son of leading sire Candy Ride and out of a dam (mother) who is a daughter of another leading sire in Tapit and who won two graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Like several other contenders in this year’s Derby, Hit Show is a grinding type who should be in contention as he makes up ground in the stretch – if the early pace is fast enough to work in his favor. Derby History: Brad Cox is seeking his second Kentucky Derby win this year, but his first with a horse that crossed the finish line in front. The Louisville native received long-delayed recognition when his colt Mandaloun, who finished second behind Medina Sprit in May 2021, was named the Kentucky Derby winner in February 2022 after Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for a banned medication. Owners Gary and Mary West have had the opposite Kentucky Derby experience: their colt Maximum Security finished first in 2019 but was disqualified and placed 17th by the Kentucky stewards for interfering with other horses as the field traveled through the far turn at Churchill Downs. Jockey Manny Franco finished second in the 2020 Derby aboard Tiz the Law.


Confidence Game

Jockey: James Graham

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables

Career record: 7 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $785,525

Earnings per start: $112,218

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante, by Bernardini

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Every Kentucky Derby contender this year competed in their final prep race during the timespan of March 25-April 15, save one. This Candy Ride colt made his last appearance on the track Feb. 25 in the Rebel Stakes, which he won in a 18.50-1 upset against a quality field. Since then, Confidence Game has been training steadily, first at Fair Grounds and more recently at Churchill Downs, a track where he raced on four times during his 2-year-old season with two wins. Trainer Keith Desormeaux has said he’s satisfied with Confidence Game’s development over the past several weeks despite not testing him again in one of the major Derby points preps. The colt is definitely bred to race longer than the Rebel’s 1 1/16 miles, as his sire Candy Ride set a track record in the prestigious 1 ¼-mile Pacific Classic Stakes and his dam (mother) is a half-sister (same dam, different sire [father]) to Hall of Famer Zenyatta. Come early evening of May 6, the public will see if Desormeaux’s patient decision in bringing Confidence Game along without another prep race was the right one. This colt will arrive into the Derby fresh and is certainly capable of pulling the upset, or at least finishing in the top three, with his best effort. Derby History: Keith Desormeaux finished second in the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Exaggerator, who won the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. Jockey James Graham will make his third start in the Derby this year, and owner Don’t Tell My Wife Stables its second.


Verifying

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owners: Westerberg, Susan Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor

Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $489,900

Earnings per start: $81,650

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 102

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: One of the best-bred runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby, Verifying has been highly regarded since his debut last summer, when he was favored at 3-4 odds in a sprint race at the marquee Saratoga Race Course meet and won by 1 ¾ lengths. Since then, he’s been managed patiently by Brad Cox and comes into the Derby off of an encouraging runner-up effort to Tapit Trice in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 8, where he pressed the early pace and then dueled with the victor (who rallied from a stalking spot) all through the stretch before yielding late. His effort prior to the Blue Grass qualifies as a “sneaky-good” race: he was held up in traffic for several strides entering the stretch but still finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes Feb. 25. If he can improve slightly on his speed figures from those two starts and an earlier win this year in an allowance race, Verifying can hit the board in the Kentucky Derby and possibly pull the upset. He’s got a forwardly-placed running style that should help him in a Derby that doesn’t possess a lot of speed horses and, as mentioned, he’s got a fine pedigree. Verifying is the first horse sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify to start in the Kentucky Derby, and he is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire) to 2019 champion dirt female and $7.4 million earner Midnight Bisou, who excelled racing around two turns. Derby History: Brad Cox is in the hunt for his second Kentucky Derby victory as a trainer this year after Mandaloun was named the winner of the 2021 race months later due to the disqualification of first-place finisher Medina Spirit because of a medication violation. Cox also finished third in 2021 with eventual champion 3-year-old colt Essential Quality, who was moved up from fourth. Tyler Gaffalione, who led the Churchill Downs jockey standings for seven straight meets (spring 2020 through spring 2022) and has nine riding titles at the track overall, will be making his fifth start in the Derby. Co-owner Michael Tabor won the 1995 Kentucky Derby with Thunder Gulch, and Tabor and Derrick Smith co-owned 2004 runner-up Lion Heart.


Sun Thunder

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Owners: R. T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine

Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $247,500

Earnings per start: $41,250

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 94

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Sun Thunder earned his way into Derby 149 with four consecutive finishes in qualifying races that were good enough to earn him points. The best of those came on Feb. 18, when he fought his way to a short lead in midstretch of the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford but could not finish the job and settled for second behind Angel of Empire. Since then, this Into Mischief colt has finished fifth then fourth in major points races and was no threat to the winners in each of them. His overall speed figures are around 15 points lower than what will be required to win the Kentucky Derby based on historical precedent. As a deep closer, he may also be compromised by a projected modest pace in this year’s Derby. If that is not the case and the early leaders blaze through the first three-quarters of a mile or so, Sun Thunder could grind his way past some tiring horses in the stretch, but even that scenario would leave him out of the top four or five finishers unless he improves on his prior form significantly. Derby History: Louisville-based jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. will make his fourth Derby start this year, and Lexington-based trainer Ken McPeek his ninth. McPeek finished second in his first Derby appearance with Tejano Run in 1995.


Mage

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Owners: OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Career record: 3 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $247,200

Earnings per start: $82,400

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 102

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: This South Florida-based Derby contender is similar to Kingsbarns in that he’s only made three career starts and all of those have come in the first months of 2023. Mage will try to join 2018 Derby and Triple Crown winner Justify as the only horses since Apollo in 1882 to win the run for the roses without making a start at age 2, and while he’ll be a longshot when the starting gate opens, there are several things to like about this colt. He is not undefeated like Kingsbarns – in fact, he’s lost both of his Kentucky Derby preps after winning his debut back on Jan. 28. But he’s run better in each race and is improving fast, as evidenced by his start in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa April 1, where he made a visually impressive sweeping move from well back in the field to engage Cyclone Mischief for the lead in early stretch. He outfinished that foe but was in turn bested by odds-on favorite Forte in the final strides to lose by a length – which is nothing to be ashamed of, to say the least. Mage also has an underrated pedigree for stamina: he is from the first crop of 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic and his dam (mother) is by 2008 Kentucky Derby Big Brown and is a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to long-distance turf millionaire Finnegans Wake. Inexperience will be Mage’s biggest challenge in a crowded Kentucky Derby and his peak form is probably a few starts away. He’ll need to overcome a habit of starting slowly, which compromised him in both of his Derby prep races, in order to have a chance at the upset. Derby History: Trainer Gustavo Delgado will be making his third Derby appearance. Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano has made 15 prior starts in the Derby and finished third in 2018.


Disarm

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Career record: 5 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $327,850

Earnings per start: $65,570

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 95

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Disarm qualified for a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby by finishing third in his final prep race, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes April 15. He had earned the majority of his points one race prior, when he was the only horse to make up any substantial ground on front-running winner Kingsbarns in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby March 25, settling for second by 3 ½ lengths. After winning one of two starts last summer, this Gun Runner colt was sidelined until Feb. 19 of this year, and he’s returned to compete against top-level opponents in three starts without coming close to winning, finishing second in an allowance race and then second in the Louisiana Derby and third in the Lexington. He does have a good pedigree for handling the Kentucky Derby’s 1 ¼ miles, as his half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire) Tap Daddy won twice at 1 1/16 miles in the U.S. and then shipped to Venezuela and was honored as champion stayer (long-distance horse). It’s unlikely that he can improve enough to score an upset win in this year’s Kentucky Derby, but Disarm is a colt worth following in the months ahead for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, who is known for developing his racehorses on each one’s own individual timeline. Derby History: Asmussen, the all-time winningest trainer in North America and also the all-time leader in wins at Churchill Downs, has yet to win the Kentucky Derby. He has finished second three times (including Epicenter last year for owner Winchell Thoroughbreds) and third twice with 24 prior starters. Jockey Joel Rosario rode Epicenter last year; the veteran rider won the 2013 Kentucky Derby aboard Orb.


Reincarnate

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan

Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $345,650

Earnings per start: $49,379

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 103

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: For most Kentucky Derbys going back to the mid-1990s, Bob Baffert has been a regular presence, winning the race six times and finishing second three times and third three times. However, the Hall of Famer was suspended by Churchill Downs Inc. after his 2021 first-place finisher Medina Spirit tested positive for a banned medication, and Baffert was prohibited from entering a horse in the Kentucky Derby (or any of Churchill’s other races on its properties) through summer 2023. Last year and this spring, the owners of several Baffert-trained horses transferred them to other trainers in order to get them eligible, and as it turns out Reincarnate will be the only “former Baffert” racehorse to start in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Since switching to Tim Yakteen’s supervision, Reincarnate has run third twice in Derby preps, most recently just holding that spot by a head over Rocket Can in the April 1 Arkansas Derby won by Angel of Empire. He also won the Jan. 8 Sham Stakes in California but did not receive any qualifying points due to the Baffert suspension. At his best, Reincarnate can be a pace factor in the May 6 Kentucky Derby as he prefers to race on or near the early lead. Jockey John Velazquez is a good fit for him in that regard: the Hall of Fame rider won the 2020 Derby on the front end aboard Authentic and also led at every point of call on Medina Spirit in 2021. If it transpires that “Johnny V” has his mount all alone in front again this year, Reincarnate has enough proven form and stamina to remain in contention into midstretch at the very least. Derby History: Yakteen assumed oversight of two of Baffert’s charges in last year’s Kentucky Derby, and both finished out of the money. Reincarnate’s large ownership group includes several entities with prior Derby success. Jack and Laurie Wolf’s Starlight Racing and Sol Kumin (who races under several names, including Madaket Stables) co-owned both 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify and 2020 winner Authentic with other partners. Stonestreet Stables co-owned 2018 Derby runner-up Good Magic and 2007 third-place finisher Curlin, who won the Preakness that year and was awarded Horse of the year in both 2007 and 2008. John Velazquez is tied with seven other riders in fourth place all-time with three Kentucky Derby victories. His came with Animal Kingdom in 2011, Always Dreaming in 2017, and the aforementioned Authentic in 2020. Velazquez has also finished second twice from 24 prior starters.


Jace’s Road

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Trainer: Brad Cox

Owners: West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables

Career record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 2 thirds

Career earnings: $238,050

Earnings per start: $39,675

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post, by Silver Deputy

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: This colt joined three other Brad Cox trainees as prospective Kentucky Derby starters April 23 when the connections of Blazing Sevens decided to bypass the first leg of the Triple Crown and point to the Preakness Stakes May 20. Jace’s Road earned most of his Derby qualifying points with a win last December in the Gun Runner Stakes and a third-place finish behind Kingsbarns in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, his most recent start. In the Louisiana Derby, Jace’s Road sat a length or so off of pacesetter Kingsbarns through the backstretch and started to tire on the far turn, getting passed by runner-up Disarm in the final stages. On a positive note, he did not quit in the race and finished two lengths ahead of the fourth-place horse. This Quality Road colt prefers to be forwardly placed, and it would not be surprising to see jockey Florent Geroux attempt a trip with him similar to Mandaloun’s run in the 2021 Derby, where jockey and horse stayed in touch with front-running Medina Spirit all the way around and finished second behind that foe (moved up to the winner’s spot months later). One note of caution: Jace’s Road’s two career-worst races, by far, came on sloppy tracks, so downgrade his upset chances if there’s rain on Derby day.  Derby History: As mentioned, Cox and Florent Geroux teamed up to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby with considerable delayed gratification, as Mandaloun was not officially declared the winner until nine months later in February 2022, when first-place finisher Medina Spirit was disqualified. Geroux also finished third in the 2016 Derby aboard Gun Runner in the first of six career starts prior to this year. Co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds, managed by Terry Finley, co-owned 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming and was sole owner of 2014 runner-up Commanding Curve. And through West Point, several participants of America’s Best Racing’s A Stake in Stardom initiative own a minority interest in Jace’s Road: NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport, FOX Sports reporter Lindsay Czarniak, and FOX Sports talk show host Joy Taylor.


Continuar

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third

Career earnings: $337,889

Earnings per start: $67,578

Top Equibase Speed Figure: N/A

Kentucky Derby points: Secured automatic invite

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring, by King Kamehameha

Color: Chestnut

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Continuar joins Derma Sotogake as Japan-based contenders in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (with Mandarin Hero still having a remote chance at making the race as of this writing). He secured his spot not by accruing qualifying points in the U.S. series of races but by earning them in Japan via a win in the Cattleya Stakes last November. Continuar projects to carry much higher post-time odds than his compatriot based mainly on the fact that he finished 10 lengths behind Derma Sotogake in his final Derby prep race, the UAE Derby Sponsored by Atlantis the Royal March 25 at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. It’s important to note that three other horses finished ahead of Continuar in the Japanese Road to the Derby series, including Derma Sotogake who ended up qualifying anyway with his UAE Derby victory. Continuar only made the trip to Louisville after connections of the other two qualifiers either declined the automatic berth or did not pay a late nomination fee. He’s a son of American sprint champion Drefong but possesses some stamina in his dam’s (mother’s) bloodline. Nevertheless, Continuar will be one of the longest shots in the 2023 Kentucky Derby field, and deservedly so. Derby History: This will be the first Kentucky Derby appearance for all of Continuar’s connections. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi tallied two wins in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar (with Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine) to make his name known to American racing fans.


Skinner 

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Owner: C R K Stable

Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $216,300

Earnings per start: $36,050

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 104

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon

Color: Bay

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Skinner moved into 19th place on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard and secured a position in the starting gate April 27. Now that he’s eligible to start in the race, he’s a live longshot who can hit the board assuming he continues to develop along his current trajectory. The son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin started his 3-year-old season off with a sharp win in an allowance race back in February and then proved he belonged with the best West Coast Derby contenders by finishing third in two points preps, the San Felipe Stakes and, most recently, the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on April 8, both won by Practical Move. In the Santa Anita Derby, Skinner rallied in the stretch and finished only a half-length behind Practical Move and runner-up Mandarin Hero, who were separated by a nose (he also exchanged bumps with Mandarin Hero in the late going). The two Equibase Speed Figures he earned in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby are competitive with the leading Kentucky Derby contenders and, as evidenced by his recent form, the best could be yet to come for this colt. Skinner is worth a long look as an upset candidate. Derby History: California-based trainer John Shirreffs won the Kentucky Derby in his very first appearance, when Giacomo pulled off the upset in 2005. This will be the first Derby mount for jockey Juan Hernandez, who has risen to the top rank of riders on the Southern California circuit over the past couple of years.


Cyclone Mischief (also-eligible)

Jockey: TBD

Trainer: Dale Romans

Owners: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons

Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 3 thirds

Career earnings: $246,350

Earnings per start: $35,193

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere, by Bernardini

Color: Bay

Running style: Press the pace

Notable achievements and interesting facts: All systems are set to switch to “go” for Cyclone Mischief to run in the Kentucky Derby … if one more contender currently holding a position in the 20-horse starting gate is withdrawn. He competed on the South Florida circuit of Kentucky Derby preps, and finished third in two of them to earn his points. In the second of those, Cyclone Mischief fought hard with Mage through midstretch in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa before yielding to finish two lengths behind that foe, while Forte rallied past both of them to win the race. Based on speed figures, finishing 10th or better in the Kentucky Derby should be considered a success for this runner if he makes the field. The Into Mischief colt appears to be best suited to races at 1 1/16 miles or shorter, although he does have some stamina influences in his dam’s (mother’s) pedigree. Derby History: Louisville native Dale Romans, who ranks second all-time in wins at Churchill Downs, has finished third twice from 11 prior Kentucky Derby starters.


Major Dude (also-eligible)

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Career record: 8 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third

Career earnings: $436,095

Earnings per start: $54,512

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Pedigree: Bolt d’Oro – Mary Rita, by Distorted Humor

Color: Bay

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: As of April 27, Major Dude will need two defections from the 20 horses who’ve wrapped up a starting-gate spot in order to gain his own position. The well-bred colt from the first crop of Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro made his first three career starts on dirt, with one win, but then switched to turf and improved his form considerably, picking up one graded stakes win on grass as a 2-year-old and another one in February of this year at 3. After that victory, Todd Pletcher entered him in a Kentucky Derby prep, and Major Dude ran second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface track. He was no threat to the winner, finishing 5 ¼ lengths behind Two Phil’s, but he was also 2 ¼ lengths clear of the third-place horse. Major Dude has already compiled a solid résumé, but his achievements have largely come on surfaces he won’t be running on should he make the Kentucky Derby – and as such, he’ll be a longshot if we see him on May 6. Derby History: Pletcher would have four starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby if Major Dude draws in, adding to his record total of 62. He won the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017. Spendthrift Farm was a co-owner of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic.


Mandarin Hero (also-eligible)

Jockey: TBA

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita

Owner: Hiroaki Arai

Career record: 6 starts – 4 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $386,854

Earnings per start: $64,476

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 105

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby – Namura Nadeshiko, by Fuji Kiseki

Color: Dark bay or brown

Running style: Stalker

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Three Kentucky Derby starters as of April 27 would have to be withdrawn by their connections in order for this Japanese runner to gain entry, but if that improbable sequence of events occurs, this Shanghai Bobby colt will join Skinner and Mage as live longshots in the run for the roses. After winning four of his five career starts in his home country, Mandarin Hero was shipped to California to contest the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby April 8, where he was respected at the betting windows and sent off at 8.10-1 odds. He validated that support by nearly winning the race, rallying gamely through the stretch and engaging both favored Practical Move and another highly regarded horse, Skinner, in a thrilling duel. Mandarin Hero finished a nose behind Practical Move and a half-length in front of Skinner, and earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure that is among the top numbers earned by any 2023 Kentucky Derby contender. Was his effort in the Santa Anita Derby an aberration? As mentioned, he started his career 4-for-5 in Japan, but did so racing on the country’s second-tier circuit while horses such as Derma Sotogake and Continuar faced better horses at more prestigious racetracks. That being said, Mandarin Hero obviously loves to compete, and he could be a racehorse that belongs at a level higher than originally thought. Derby History: This is the first Kentucky Derby appearance for Mandarin Hero’s owner and trainer.


King Russell (also-eligible)

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Owners: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing

Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 3 seconds – 0 thirds

Career earnings: $322,350

Earnings per start: $53,725

Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will, by Proud Citizen

Color: Gray or roan

Running style: Closer

Notable achievements and interesting facts: Last on the Kentucky Derby eligible list, King Russell faces long odds of making the race as four of the horses that have a starting gate reservation as of April 27 would have to be withdrawn before he could join the party. This colt faced long odds as well in his lone Derby prep race, the April 1 Arkansas Derby, and he outran his 58.80-1 price by rallying through the middle of the stretch to finish second behind Angel of Empire. Prior to that eye opener, King Russell hit the board in three consecutive races, with one win and two runner-up finishes. That indicates that this colt is on the upswing as his 3-year-old season progresses, and he boosted his Equibase Speed Figure 11 points to a competitive 99 in the Arkansas Derby. Still, he is a deep closer who will need a fast pace to set up his stretch run, and there are several other horses in this year’s Derby with similar running styles who are more accomplished in terms of winning record and speed figures. Derby History: This will be trainer Ron Moquett’s third Derby appearance, and the 13th for jockey Rafael Bejarano, who is noted for his patience and ability to finish well on horses.



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